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Summary of Study Results
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5 Full-Outbreak Scenarios
The first assessment involves placing the rectified damage contours of 53 tornadoes atop North Central Texas.
A total of five (5) scenarios are chosen. Each scenario features a different centering of the whole group of tornadoes
while maintaining their direction and relative position to each other.
The largest number of statistical categories are included in these scenarios,
including structures, population, property value, traffic and employment.
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| Scenario |
Structures Impacted |
Homes |
Apartment Units |
Vehicles at Normal Density |
Vehicles in Traffic Jam |
Employees in Path |
Residents in Path |
Potential Damages |
| 1 |
17,050 |
11,940 |
3,720 |
635 |
44,600 |
5,700 |
34,640 |
$811,000,000 |
| 2 |
14,350 |
8,750 |
3,900 |
640 |
39,300 |
10,500 |
34,030 |
$790,000,000 |
| 3 |
23,350 |
14,450 |
6,200 |
1,730 |
79,580 |
52,240 |
51,300 |
$2,652,000,000 |
| 4 |
30,850 |
17,050 |
10,950 |
1,830 |
87,090 |
55,990 |
69,350 |
$2,808,000,000 |
| 5 |
38,450 |
17,250 |
19,050 |
2,485 |
87,050 |
34,620 |
84,020 |
$2,859,000,000 |
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The Series of 50 Scenarios
The second assessment involves placing the damage contours of the Moore F-5 tornado
atop 50 different portions of North Central Texas. This tornado is a solid
example of the long-tracked violent class tornadoes that have occurred on
multiple occasions throughout Texas and the Midwest. Population and structure
impacts are compared for each of these 50 paths. This task provides the best
opportunity to look for trends in the Metroplex paths and to identify a possible
average expectation for a storm of this magnitude. Evident in the data is a
north Dallas hotspot. Seven (7) individual damage paths in that area are
modeled to contain over $5 billion of property and over
25,000 individual structures and apartment units.
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The 10 Paths with the Largest Potential Risk
| Primary County |
Structures Impacted |
Homes |
Apartment Units |
Residents in Path |
Property Value in Path |
Potential Damages |
| Dallas |
33,320 |
19,100 |
12,700 |
73,000 |
$7,936,000,000 |
$4,722,000,000 |
| Dallas |
28,100 |
12,300 |
14,100 |
58,000 |
$7,445,000,000 |
$4,257,000,000 |
| Dallas |
30,700 |
12,400 |
17,000 |
62,200 |
$5,753,000,000 |
$3,941,000,000 |
| Dallas |
38,350 |
16,600 |
20,300 |
78,900 |
$5,909,000,000 |
$3,752,000,000 |
| Dallas |
40,150 |
15,750 |
23,450 |
80,900 |
$5,311,000,000 |
$3,453,000,000 |
| Dallas |
25,800 |
9,475 |
15,000 |
52,000 |
$5,910,000,000 |
$3,281,000,000 |
| Dallas |
28,950 |
17,250 |
9,575 |
64,300 |
$5,429,000,000 |
$3,177,000,000 |
| Dallas |
30,250 |
17,850 |
11,500 |
68,300 |
$4,916,000,000 |
$2,789,000,000 |
| Tarrant |
20,350 |
12,250 |
6,250 |
42,400 |
$4,916,000,000 |
$2,545,000,000 |
| Tarrant |
19,570 |
14,100 |
4,575 |
45,700 |
$4,399,000,000 |
$2,532,000,000 |
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Distribution of Structure and Potential Damages estimated Among the 50 Paths.
Over 50% of the paths would contain more than 20,000 structures/apartment units and
$1 Billion of computer-calculated structural damages.
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The "Typical" Impact
If the statistics of each of the 50 scenarios are averaged together,
the result could be interpreted as an average expectation for a storm
of this magnitude moving across the Metroplex. As expected, a higher
average impact is encountered if the more developed paths are analyzed
as a group.
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Average of All Paths |
Average of Paths at Least 50% Developed |
Structures in Path:
20,140
Property in Path:
$2.7 Billion
Damages:
$1.5 Billion
Residents in Path:
46,770
Single Family Units:
11,800
Multi-Family Units:
7,350
Residential Damages:
$1.04 Billion
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Structures in Path:
30,950
Property in Path:
$4.5 Billion
Damages:
$2.5 Billion
Residents in Path:
69,400
Single Family Units:
15,800
Multi-Family Units:
13,700
Residential Damages:
$1.6 Billion
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